The first thing to look at is the supply of the Pop. The lower the supply, the better chance the Pop has on rising in value. The Pop will only hold that value if it is vaulted and no more are being manufactured. If there is another production run it could cause the price to drop and in some cases could be a great time to add that Pop to your collection. Find recent restocks HERE.
I typically use Amazon and eBay to gauge the supply levels. On amazon, it is fairly easy to figure out the supply. Look for the number of offers from sellers that the Pop has listed at that time. When Amazon runs out of stock of a particular item, 3rd party offers will typically shoot down because their inventory levels are much lower than Amazons.
On eBay, all you need to do is search "[Name on Box] [Box Number] Funko Pop" and see how many search results pop up. I'll use an example of a Pop I think has potential to rise in the coming months.
As you can see in example above, there are 20 results for the Ghost Clown Funko Pop. The current supply levels of an item are pretty easy to figure out but these numbers by themselves don't really say much about the future value of a Pop. Next, we will need to figure out the demand of the Pop.
The demand of a particular Pop is more tricky to figure out because we mostly want to know about future demand and not necessarily the current demand. We need to look at what upcoming events could cause demand for that Pop to go up (i.e. movies, shows, games).
On Amazon there are a couple ways to gauge the demand of a figure. Under "Product Information" there will be a "Best Sellers Rank" and the lower the number the more popular the item is. Sometimes the sales rank does not show up and you can gauge demand by the number of reviews the item has. Keep the release date in mind when using this method.
In the example I used earlier for the Ghost Clown Funko Pop there were 36 of this figure that sold in the last 90 days.
Comparing Supply and Demand
Using the Ebay numbers, the price of a Pop will typically increase over time if the number of sold listings is a lot higher than the number of Pops for sale. If the Pop is not vaulted then there is a risk of the price coming back down if there is another production run. If the Pop is vaulted then the price will almost always go up as long as the demand is higher than the supply. A ratio of 1.5 (sold listings divided by current listings) or higher is typically a great sign. The example above has a 1.8 ratio (36/20).
On Amazon, I use software from Keepa to look at the number of offers over time. It is typically a good sign to see the number of offers declining because the price is inversely correlated to the number of offers.
I used data from the Ghost Clown Funko Pop. The pink line is the price history of the Funko Pop and the blue line is the number of offers for this Pop [chart deleted]. You can see the Price is starting to increase because the number of offers is declining. Since this Pop is about to be vaulted the price will likely continue going up.
These are the metrics and tips I use to determine which Pops to buy for my Funko Pop Store. Feel free to leave any tips you may have about determining the future value of Pops in the comments below. Thanks for taking the time to read this article and I hope this helps you build a very valuable collection.
*This is speculation and for entertainment purposes only, not investment advise*